Meridian Kenya / Research · Free with registration
Kenya Location Outlook 2026
Where Kenya's growth is concentrating, how it lines up with the national projections, and the business opportunities in the six main business hubs.
November 202647 counties, 333 sub-countiesForecasts to about 2031
Summary
Growth in Kenya is concentrated, and it is moving outwards from the city cores.
A tenth of places took a third of the growth. The 33 sub-counties that added the most night-time light took 34% of Kenya's increase while holding 16% of its population.
Observed
Nairobi's growth is in its ring, not its core. Kiambu alone took 13% of Kenya's new light; Nairobi City County took 4.9%.
Observed
The second tier is pulling ahead of its population.
In the full report
The Coast is building fastest, under drought stress.
In the full report
To 2031, the commuter belt stays in front, and ten corridor lookalikes emerge.
In the full report
A first look
Where Kenya's new night-time light went, by county.
Share of Kenya's new night-time light, 2018–19 to 2024–25
Observed
Per cent of the national increase. Top 8 of 47 counties.
Kiambu13.0%
Machakos7.6%
Nakuru6.5%
Nairobi4.9%
Murang'a4.2%
Kajiado4.1%
Nyeri3.8%
Uasin Gishu3.6%
Source: NASA Black Marble VNP46A4 night-time light, summed per sub-county by Meridian Kenya.
In the full report
Kenya's trajectory: KNBS projections to 2045, 2026 growth forecasts and the five pillars of the national plan
Where growth is going: new light and new buildings by county
The outlook to 2031: the 12 leading sub-counties and three national scenarios
Profiles of the six business hubs: Nairobi Metropolitan, Mombasa & Coast, Kisumu, Nakuru & Naivasha, Eldoret & North Rift, Mount Kenya & Meru
Opportunities matched to the pillars of the national plan
Ten corridor lookalikes
Drought risk, limits and sources
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