Which neighbourhoods should our next stores open in, and which would draw sales from the stores we already have?
Growth forecast, spending per adult, mapped competitors, drive-time catchments, estimated shop cash flow.
Location & Investment Intelligence
Evidence for better location decisions.
We compare Kenya's 333 inhabited sub-counties on growth, demand and risk, then turn the evidence into a shortlist for your next branches, stores or sites. You receive a written report and a working session with the analysts who built the model.
Understand locations. Compare opportunities. Make informed decisions.
Where Kenya's new night-time light went
ObservedFour sub-counties, Athi River, Juja, Naivasha and Ruiru, took a tenth of all the new light Kenya added. Growth is concentrated, and the places it concentrates in change over time.
333Inhabited sub-counties
47Counties
5Sectors scored
2014–25Night-time light, annual
2016–23Building footprints, annual
Who it's for
For teams that decide where to invest, open or build.
Every engagement starts from a question about places. These are the questions we hear most often, with the evidence we bring to each.
Which branches sit in catchments that are slowing, and where is demand growing without a branch nearby?
Financial-services score, new buildings, mobile coverage, branch and agent supply, place types.
Where is off-grid demand still growing, and which counties carry drought or conflict risk for a receivables portfolio?
Grid reach, growth in night-time light, rainfall anomalies and drought months, conflict history.
Where are new rental and affordable units likely to fill fastest, and what rent would a block need to beat a government bond?
Household growth, rent ranges, build and land costs, estimated ten-year cash flow from P10 to P90.
Is this company's expansion plan pointed at places that are actually growing?
An independent ranking of the pipeline, a back-tested forecast, risk flags and portfolio checks.
What can our investment profile show investors, sub-county by sub-county, that they can check for themselves?
Sector scores, growth outlook to 2031, comparable places elsewhere in Kenya, sources for every figure.
Methodology
How the evidence is built.
Public data measured on the ground and from orbit, combined into one model per sub-county. Each step is checked before the next one runs, and every output is labelled as observed, estimated or forecast.
Assemble
The 2019 census, KNBS household surveys, night-time light 2014–2025, building footprints 2016–2023, roads, the power grid, mobile networks, rainfall and conflict records.
ObservedScreen
Score every sub-county for five sectors, with a risk penalty and a confidence rating so that thin data is never presented as a strong signal.
EstimateForecast
Estimate each place's share of Kenya's new activity to 2031, with the three factors that move each forecast up or down.
ForecastCompare
Group places into 13 types and identify places that resemble proven growth corridors before their growth shows in rents and prices.
EstimateEstimate returns
Cash-flow models for a block of flats and a small shop give a range from P10 to P90, with the assumptions stated, rather than a single figure.
EstimateShortlist
An optimiser selects the strongest set of sites within your budget, the spacing you need between sites and any county limits.
Estimate
You receive a report and a working session. The models stay with us, as does the work of keeping them current.
Evidence
Tested against what actually happened.
53%
On average, 53% of the sub-counties that grew most were in our forecast's top 10%. The test was run from five start years, 2018 to 2022. Choosing at random would find 10%.
5 of 5
Start years in which the forecast's breakout scores beat a base-rate guess.
| Start year | Outcome years | Top 10% found | Rank correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2020–21 | 55% | 0.37 |
| 2019 | 2021–22 | 48% | 0.72 |
| 2020 | 2022–23 | 58% | 0.81 |
| 2021 | 2023–24 | 61% | 0.81 |
| 2022 | 2024–25 | 45% | 0.83 |
Limits: the breakout scores rank places well, but no calibration method improved them as probabilities, so our reports present them as rankings. All 333 sub-counties, outcomes measured as new night-time light.
Research
Kenya Location Outlook 2026.
Our first public report: where Kenya's growth is concentrating, how it lines up with the national projections, and what it means in the six main business hubs.
Meridian Kenya / Research
Kenya Location Outlook 2026
- 34%
of Kenya's new night-time light went to 33 sub-counties that hold 16% of its people.
- 4.9%
went to Nairobi City County, against 13% for Kiambu. The capital's growth is in its ring.
- +44%
more buildings on the Coast between 2016 and 2023, the fastest of the six hubs, despite the heaviest drought of the past year.
Hub briefs for clients
Engagements
Fixed scope, written findings.
Each engagement ends in a report and a session to work through it. There is no software to learn and no logins to manage.
Expansion shortlist
A ranked shortlist of sub-counties for your next sites, the evidence behind each, risk flags, and a set of sites spaced so they do not compete with each other.
Chains, banks, SACCOs, energyFeasibility study
Three to five candidate locations examined in detail: catchment, competition and estimated cash-flow ranges, with an optional field check using till records from comparable shops.
Chains, developersNetwork review
Your existing branches or stores set against the growth evidence: where to add, where to hold and where to relocate.
Banks, SACCOs, chainsGrowth monitor
A quarterly briefing on what changed in your markets: new light, new buildings, rainfall and conflict, with the places that moved and why.
Any client, on retainerCounty investment profile
An evidence pack for a county investment conference or investment action plan, with a source for every figure.
Counties, investment agencies
Contact
Request a briefing.
Tell us what you are deciding and where. We will reply with what the evidence can answer, what it cannot, and what an engagement would cover.
- The decision: new sites, a network review or an investment case
- The sector and the counties you are considering
- When you need to decide
Ready to start? Start client onboarding
Write to